{"id":19050,"date":"2020-12-09T09:07:46","date_gmt":"2020-12-09T09:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uwb.edu\/?p=19050"},"modified":"2023-06-08T18:24:16","modified_gmt":"2023-06-08T18:24:16","slug":"pandemic-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uwb.edu\/news\/2020\/12\/09\/pandemic-history","title":{"rendered":"What history teaches us about pandemics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Stefanie Iverson Cabral wearing a mask that comes from the Mutter Museum in Philadelphia, which has a “Spit Spreads Death” exhibit that profiles the 1918 pandemic. Courtesy photo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By Douglas Esser
\nLast March, when Stefanie Iverson Cabral started thinking about the coronavirus pandemic in comparison to the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed 675,000 Americans, she thought it couldn\u2019t be that bad this time. She\u2019s changed her mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a real possibility we\u2019re going to approach those numbers, said Iverson Cabral, an assistant teaching professor in the University of Washington Bothell\u2019s School of Nursing & Health Studies<\/a>. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iverson Cabral has been studying infectious diseases for 20 years. She teaches courses about epidemics and global health. She knew another pandemic would happen. \u201cI didn\u2019t know when, and I didn\u2019t know how,\u201d she said. \u201cI didn\u2019t know I would live through it.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Patterns in history <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Influenza
Influenza patients during WWI. Smithsonian<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The parallels to 1918 have been weighing on Iverson Cabral. Back then, about a third of the worldwide population got infected, and 50 million to 100 million people died in a period of 18 months. That pandemic had three spikes that corresponded to the United States entering World War I, the Armistice celebrations and the troops returning home. Because of wartime secrecy, the disease largely went unreported except in neutral Spain. That\u2019s why the pandemic became known as the Spanish Flu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What a difference a century makes, Iverson Cabral thought, at first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe already know what\u2019s causing it. We have the prospect of a vaccine. We have ventilators. We have antibiotics. We have all of these things in place,\u201d she said. \u201cI knew people would resist wearing masks, and I knew people would resist social distancing. But I didn\u2019t think it would be as many people as it is.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coronavirus numbers are staggering \u2014 millions of cases in a matter of days. \u201cAnd we know hospitalizations will come two weeks after the cases. And we know the deaths will come in four weeks,\u201d she said. \u201cI think December will be a very sad month for a lot of people in this country.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

New perspectives <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After teaching a history of infectious diseases course for a half-dozen years, Iverson Cabral is looking at the course materials in a different light. The week the class read about the Plague of Justinian \u2014 the sixth century plague that even sickened the emperor in Constantinople \u2014 was the week that President Trump was hospitalized. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1793, a yellow fever epidemic hit Philadelphia, the U.S. capital at the time. Residents who could afford to leave, including President George Washington, fled. \u201cIt made you think about who has the ability to leave and who is left behind,\u201d Iverson Cabral said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another plague that hit in Honolulu in 1900 was centered in Chinatown slums, which caused many people to stigmatize the Asian population. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 1950s, the Salk vaccine was welcomed by parents. They generally trusted medicine and doctors to protect their children from polio. Now, influenced by misinformation and conspiracy theories, many people won\u2019t even wear masks. Iverson Cabral doesn\u2019t foresee those people getting coronavirus vaccines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her students have been watching some public health documentaries from 10 to 20 years ago. They see Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His message has not changed: \u201cDr. Fauci is always in them, and he\u2019s always saying the same thing, \u2018We need to be prepared,\u2019\u201d Iverson Cabral said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lessons learned <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are some reassuring things to be learned from our pandemic experience, Iverson Cabral said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look at the innovations that produced vaccines in less than a year. People are more likely to pay attention to the emergence of pathogens and zoonotic diseases from animals. And people have the opportunity to imagine a society without structural inequalities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best lesson of all, though, is that this will not go on forever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t know when. We don\u2019t know how, but at some point, it will be over,\u201d Iverson Cabral said. \u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019re ever going to get back to whatever normal was. We can at least be living a more normal life.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stefanie Iverson Cabral, who teaches about epidemics and global health, fears that deaths from COVID-19 in the United States could approach the 675,000 killed in the 1918 influenza pandemic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_is_archived":false,"_archived_contact_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[202,249,229,252],"tags":[],"school":[420],"class_list":["post-19050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campus-news","category-coronavirus","category-faculty","category-population-health","school-school-of-nhs"],"acf":{"related_links":{"toggle_visibility":false,"link_1":null,"link_2":null,"link_3":null,"link_4":null,"link_5":null},"highlight_box":{"toggle_visibility":false,"title":"","content":"","button":null,"button_style":"angled-purple-button","button_screen_reader_text":""},"contact_type_1":{"toggle_visibility":true,"contact_title":"","email":"","phone":"","box":"","address_line_1":"","address_line_2":"","location":""},"contact_type_2":{"toggle_visibility":false,"contact_title":"","email":"","phone":"","box":"","address_line_1":"","address_line_2":"","location":""},"social_media":{"toggle_visibility":false,"facebook_url":"","instagram_url":"","linkedin_url":"","twitter_url":"","youtube_url":""},"blog_archive_sidebar_visibility":false},"yoast_head":"\nWhat history teaches us about pandemics - 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